Thursday 6 December 2018

Fwd: [BREAKING] Canada Abandons Free Market Capitalism

The Daily Edge
Thursday, December 6, 2018
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Jody Chudley, Financial Analyst

[BREAKING] Canada Abandons Free Market Capitalism

Jody ChudleyHi Reader,

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

That is the justification for Canada's most right-wing Province abandoning free market capitalism this week.

On Sunday, the Alberta Government announced that it will be enforcing a mandatory production cut of 8.7 percent for all oil producers operating in the province.

There is an exclusion for the really small operators, many of whom could be bankrupted by such a cut.

For all other producers, however, there is no option. Starting January 1, 2019, the production reduction is mandatory. These private sector companies have no choice.

This is a shocking measure — similar in size to the state of Texas doing the same thing.

But as always, The Daily Edge has the best way for you to play the action…


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It Seems Very Wrong, But It Is Probably Right

To appreciate how bad things have gotten, you need to understand that Alberta is Canada's version of Texas.

I'm talking about big trucks, cowboy hats and very conservative politics.

In Canada, Alberta prides itself on being the home of the free market — the province of privatization.

Alberta is a hotbed for libertarianism and the view that less government equals better government.

So what happened? What has shocked the Alberta Government into this oil patch intervention?

The answer is that the Province was tired of seeing it most valuable commodity (oil) being given away almost for free.

In Alberta, the most common blend of oil produced is called Western Canadian Select (WCS).

This is a heavier blend of oil which means that it is denser and the refining process is more complex than it is for lighter blends.

In the month of October, WCS sold on average for $45.48 per barrel less than West Texas Intermediate (the most common American light oil blend).

That meant that for much of the last two months, Alberta producers have been selling their oil for not much more than $10 per barrel. That means that every company producing it is losing money.

The economic cost of giving away oil production at this price is enormous. Not just for all of the companies that are losing money on production, but for the province of Alberta as well.

It has been estimated that on an annual basis, the recent discount costs the province of Alberta $7.2 billion on production royalties, oil producers $5.3 billion on production sales, and the Canadian federal government $800 million for its royalty take.1

It is a ridiculous amount of money being lost for the sale of a commodity that is going for multiples more elsewhere.

The Government Action Taken And How We Can Profit From It

The cause of this massive problem for conservative Alberta is that the province is landlocked.

Being landlocked means that the province needs to ship its oil through pipelines that run through other provinces and American states.

As you are likely aware, these days getting major pipelines built has been virtually impossible. The political left and environmental groups keep putting up roadblock after roadblock.

With all pipelines out of Alberta already full and the resulting glut of oil only forecasted to get worse, the Alberta Government decided to act to deal with this problem.


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Starting January 1, 2019, producers will be forced to adhere to 8.7 percent production cuts.

Combined, those cuts will reduce Alberta's oil production by 325,000 barrels per day. Over the course of 2019, that production restriction should clear the existing glut.

As a more permanent fix, the Alberta Government is going to take matters into its own hands and work around the pipeline problem. The Province is going to purchase 7,000 rail cars that will carry Alberta's oil production to its end markets.

The companies that will be the biggest beneficiaries of the wide Western Canadian Select discount being eliminated will be those that have the biggest percentages of their production exposed to that pricing.

These companies are going to benefit over both the short and long term as the Alberta Government has moved to implement a long-term solution to this pricing problem…

A problem that has been a drag on the share prices of these producers for years.

My favorite way to play this is with Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). Canadian Natural currently sports a juicy 3.7 percent plus dividend yield and has a rock-solid balance sheet.

Canadian Natural's Rapidly Growing Dividend

I also love Canadian Natural's massive oil reserve base. The company sits on an absurd 8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. That's enough to fuel the U.S. for an entire year!

Better still, with the company generating gobs of free cash flow, Canadian Natural has been rapidly growing that dividend at a rate of 23 percent per year. And with improved oil pricing going forward that dividend growth rate will only accelerate.

Here's to looking through the windshield,

Jody Chudley

Jody Chudley
Financial Analyst, The Daily Edge
EdgeFeedback@AgoraFinancial.com

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1 Canadian oil price discounts costing economy billions of dollars

In Case You Missed it...

Zach Scheidt, Editor

Grab Your Share of the Corporate Tax Windfall… One Takeover at a Time!

Zach ScheidtHi Reader,

Remember when you were a kid and someone gave you cash for your birthday or some other holiday?

There was nothing better than that feeling of having extra money that you could spend on anything you wanted.

My go-to was always Nike basketball shoes. Somehow I believed with the newest shoes, I'd be able to jump just a bit higher and score a few more points for my team.

Today, the largest American corporations are sitting on a newfound pile of cash, and executives have that same "free money to spend" feeling.

The great thing about this situation is that as corporate executives find new ways to spend windfalls totaling hundreds of billions, you can claim your own share of the action!


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Tax Bill Ships Billions Back to America

Last year at this time, we were getting excited about the new corporate tax cut.

As part of this bill, there was a provision that caused hundreds of billions (eventually, the total will be in the trillions) to flow back from overseas to the United States.

American companies that do international business typically have to pay taxes to the countries in which they are operating. And then from that point, if they are going to send their profits back to the States, they have to pay U.S. tax as well.

In order to avoid paying twice as much in taxes, many companies parked huge sums of cash in overseas bank accounts. Apple for instance had more than $250 billion in cash held in international accounts. That's a quarter trillion just from one single American company!

The new tax bill allowed corporations to bring that money back to the U.S., while paying a much lower tax rate. The idea was to provide an incentive for companies to bring this money home, and use it for new growth opportunities.

Late last week, I saw a chart from Deutsche Bank that showed how hundreds of billions have been flowing back to the U.S. this year. If you follow me on Twitter, you probably saw my tweet about it.

Zach tweet

By the way, if you want to see my day-to-day — actually minute-by-minute — thoughts on the market and our investment opportunities, you can follow me on Twitter here. Just click on the link and then hit "follow" next to my name.

With so much cash now back in the States and ready to be used, the question is, "What will executives spend the money on?"

Takeover Deals Offer the Best Return

One of the best ways that companies will be using this cash is to take over other companies through buyout deals.

Here's how a deal like this works...

A company with plenty of cash and a strong business might use its cash to buy all of the shares of another company.

Maybe that target company has a specific technology that our cash-rich company wants. Or maybe there is a specific brand of clothes or tools or other merchandise that our company wants to sell.

By spending cash to buy out this company, American firms can tap into new opportunities and thereby grow their own business. In the first half of this year, we saw a record $2.5 trillion in takeover deals like this announced.1

And as more cash flows back to the States, the stakes are only getting higher.

When buyout deals like this take place, the acquiring company buys all of the shares of the company being purchased.

And typically the acquiring company has to pay a price much higher than the current market price. After all, if you're an investor in a company getting purchased, and you know another company wants all of the shares, you're negotiating from a place of strength. And you want to get paid a lot for your shares!

That's why when a buyout deal is announced, the stock price of the company getting bought almost always jumps sharply higher. Because the buyer has to offer much more to get the sellers to agree to the deal.


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How to Spot — and Profit From — Buyout Deals

If you want to profit from an overnight buyout transaction -- waking up to a windfall profit after the announcement is made, you have to think like a corporate executive.

What company could you buy that would help you grow your business?

In retail, it often makes sense to buy a competitor, or a specific brand that would be attractive to your existing customers.

For some companies, buying a technology firm would allow your company to offer better services to your customers, make your own workforce more productive, or cut back on logistical costs.

And in many cases, a company will buy out a supplier to get access to cheaper raw materials.

If you invest in companies that are likely to get purchased by the American companies with hundreds of billions to spend, you're likely to wake up to a sharp gain one day when a new buyout offer is announced.

Of course these deals aren't always easy to spot. But if you do your homework and pick out companies that can make good money on their own, while also representing a great potential buyout target, you have a chance to make money whether a deal is announced or not.

It's just one more way Americans are using this growing economy and the new corporate tax bill to add to their investment gains.

Here's to growing and protecting your wealth!

Zach Scheidt

Zach Scheidt
Editor, The Daily Edge
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About The Daily Edge

The Daily Edge is your inside look at news, politics, markets, retirement and a rich American lifestyle. Ex-hedge fund manager, Zach Scheidt brings to the table impeccable investment experience and a solid record of identifying oversized payout opportunities. Every day that the market is open Zach and his team of expert contributors bring you boots-on-the-ground reporting and timely market insights.
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